This car is not guaranteed to be limited like the 1M. BMW was very clear and official about the fact that the 1M was a special edition limited run car. The M2 has not been branded that way, and your suggestion about targeted limited production does not agree with anything BMW has been doing over that past 2 years - that is introducing 807089890 new models every week. The likely scenario is that this is going to be "limited" only in the sense that it's an enthusiast car, like the M3/M4 which already sell in limited quantities based on demand, and as such it will be "limited" by production demand. That's wildly different than an intentional sub-1000 count run of a special edition car.
As for retail markup, that would not surprise me in the least, however, at this point any dealer you are talking to that claims anything is purely speculative. BMW North America doesn't know or determine anything about production ahead of time.
all that said, I would never buy a brand new bmw, so my plan was to wait and see how they perform and pick one up used - if the production becomes limited to the point that prices don't drop, then I'll say F it and keep my 1er
also in for pics when (hopefully) you get yours delivered